The EU is set to introduce a new Climate Law in spring. This will set a course of CO2 targets through to the Year 2040. It will have a significant knock on effect on a range of EU policy areas and initiatives involving IoT and connected Technologies, including smart manufacturing, transportation, energy, infrastructure, cities and health care.

The new law is going to signal a major tightening of the EU’s climate change approach. It will set a new target of achieving a 90% reduction in carbon emissions by 2040. It will place an obligation on the 27 countries of the European Union, which include some of the heaviest polluters in Europe. It is unlikely to have a significant effect among the other 24 European countries outside the EU block. This is because they either already have equivalent or even more ambitious climate targets then the new EU climate law, such as Norway and the UK, or that they won’t be minded to implement the targets.

The new climate law and targets are contentious. Europe is facing an escalating series of challenges that are calling for rapid re-industrialisation and a reallocation of resources to rearmament, military preparations and development of critical industries within the European continent. There is growing scepticism of green targets and technologies, and an increasing political resistance to their adoption across Europe, both within governments and among popular movements.

EU Governments delay announcement

The new climate law was supposed to have been announced in February. However, opposition from EU governments has led to the European Commission delaying the announcement of the new law until late spring to avoid popular resistance affecting the results of elections being held in European countries in early spring.

The European Commission drafted law will still have to be approved by the European Parliament and the European Council. The latter holds effectively the power of ultimate approval. There are questions whether the new law can gain approval in either body.

There is a solid bloc of around a third of European Parliament MEPs who are opposed to the new law and will vote against it. The largest grouping in the parliament, the centre right European Peoples Party (EPP), have not yet decided whether to support the new law. There is considerable opposition within the EPP to it. If the EPP decides to vote against it, the opposition will rise to almost two-thirds, and the bill will fail, killing it dead.

The European Council, which is the most powerful body in the EU, has also been lukewarm in its support. Only eight governments out of 27 have declared their support for the bill. However, that could change if the European Parliament does approve the new law.

Emission goals could be watered down

The new law is unlikely to fail outright, given the EU’s approach to consensus building. It is quite likely however that it could be watered down. A key question is to what degree it will be watered down.

If the new climate law is approved in its present form, it is likely to accelerate investment in new transportation, energy, manufacturing and smart City programmes across the European Union. Activity in these areas could step up significantly.

If the new law is heavily watered down, or even fails altogether, it will not affect current smart energy, city and manufacturing initiatives. These will continue, and are already some of the most ambitious and well-funded across the planet. However, a heavily watered down new climate law will signal a downscaling of climate objectives and a step back from specifically environmental projects.

But however the law reaches adoption, it will be accompanied by a significant EU, as well as UK and Norwegian, investment in re-industrialisation and strengthening of energy grids and critical connected infrastructure.