Global cellular IoT module shipments are expected to cross 1.2 billion units by 2030 with a CAGR of 12%, according to Counterpoint Research.

The shipments will be mainly driven by 5G, NB-IoT and 4G Cat 1 bis technologies, with 5G the fastest growing (60%) technology, followed by 4G Cat 1 bis, during 2022 to 2030.

With 5G becoming mature, Counterpoint predicts it will see large module vendors such as Quectel, Fibocom, MeiG, Foxconn, Thales, Telit and Sierra Wireless consolidating their positions in the global cellular IoT module market. Longtail module vendors will struggle with scale and partnerships.

“With the ongoing sunset of 2G and 3G networks across the world, most of the demand has been shifting to LPWA, 4G Cat 1 and 4G Cat 1 bis technologies until now,” said Soumen Mandal, senior research analyst. “NB-IoT will still remain popular in parts of Asia, including China, and Europe, while 4G Cat-1-based modules proliferate over the next few years.”

With LPWA technologies such as NB-IoT, LTE-M and 4G Cat-1 driving this initial adoption of cellular IoT, the global cellular IoT market will transition from 4G to 5G during the rest of this decade. This transition will be faster compared with the transition from 2G and 3G to LPWA and 4G in the IoT segment. The report predicts 5G will be the leading technology in the global cellular IoT module market, followed by NB-IoT and 4G Cat 1 bis.

The rollout of 5G and the introduction of 5G RedCap in coming years will see the adoption of 5G across intelligent IoT applications in industrial, asset tracking, PoS, telematics, healthcare and wearables segments, mostly replacing traditional 4G IoT applications. The report estimates that cumulative 5G shipments excluding 5G RedCap will reach 2.5 billion units, growing at a CAGR of 60% between 2022 and 2030.

By the end of this decade, it predicts the introduction of 6G technology for IoT. However, 6G will be limited to higher-end applications such as enterprise and broadband in the initial years of adoption.”

“Smart meter, industrial, router and CPE, automotive, and PoS will be the top five applications in 2030 in terms of shipments, said Neil Shah, vice-president of research. “5G will be preferred for Industrial 4.0 (including robotics, automation and digital twins), router/CPE such as FWA and private networks, and automotive such as connected and autonomous mobility applications. LPWA will be preferred for utilities (smart meter) and 4G Cat 1 bis and 5G RedCap for PoS applications.”

China leads in 5G adoption in the global cellular IoT module market. However, North America and Europe have potential in the future. 5G adoption in emerging markets such as India and Latin America is also predicted to grow faster and 5G RedCap may become popular in these regions.