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The path to V2X – IMC CES Conference Report
- January 27, 2021
- William Payne
How long will it be before we start seeing vehicles with V2X systems appearing on our roads? And which countries are likely to emerge as the leaders in this technology? According to Syed Zaeem Hosain, CTO of Aeris Communications, the answer is that although some V2X technologies will emerge relatively soon, the bulk of V2X is going to take time to emerge, and even longer to become established on roads. And the country that will be the leader? Mr Hosain believes that’s going to be China.
Mr Hosain, who is Chairman Emeritus of the IoT M2M Council (IMC), was speaking at the IoT Infrastructure Partner Conference at CES 2021. The event discussed how 5G and IoT would accelerate technology shifts. Mr Hosain addressed trends and challenges around V2X.
According to Mr Hosain, we could be in for a long wait for V2X, especially in the West. He believes that so-called smart “objects in motion” are imminent, such as smart bicycles, drones, and delivery AVs. These will appear soon, and will implement aspects of V2X technology. But while some V2X technology will arrive soon, the bulk of V2X is going to take a long time to appear.
Mr Hosain pointed to the state of V2V, with much of it still in the design stage. Looking at historical analogies, such as DSRC, the likelihood is that V2V for inter-vehicle communication is going to take a long time, even with fewer players involved.
V2I could also take a long time, perhaps longer. The infrastructure for V2I deployment needs public funding. And most governments currently do not have the money to build the infrastructure.
Addressing the question of when connected cars might be the majority of vehicles sold in the world, Mr Hosain pointed to a 2019 analyst’s estimate that 30 million cars will ship that year with embedded telematics. Not V2X, just some form of embedded telematics.
The expectation is that this figure is likely to grow to around 75 million by 2024.
Other analysts have predicted that by 2025 there will be some V2X in play. Maybe around 11 million cars shipping by then will have some kind of V2X solution, most probably V2E. And the majority of cars shipping with V2X will happen in China, about 40 percent. Europe will probably account for around 25 percent, and the rest of the world will account for the remainder.
Mr Hosain added the warning that we have a long way to go before V2X makes up the majority of cars on the world’s roads: “Remember, we have over a billion cars in use around the world currently. So it’s going to take a long time to transition to V2X.”