By Alastair MacLeod , CEO of Ground Control

Satellite IoT is moving from early adoption to scaled deployment. It is no longer a niche, with forecasts putting the global subscriber base at 32.5 million by 2029. This growth is driven by many industries – including shipping, logistics, agriculture, and more – that require connectivity far beyond what traditional terrestrial coverage can provide.

But such growth doesn’t come without challenges. There are several key trends that we, and the 211 peers we surveyed working in satellite IoT across varying industries, believe will be instrumental in shaping the satellite IoT industry next year, and beyond that.

Security and resilience take centre stage

 In our survey, 45% of respondents cited security and resilience as the primary driver of changing satellite IoT buying behaviour in 2026. Geopolitical uncertainty and rising tensions have dramatically increased demand for secure and resilient connectivity when it comes to critical national infrastructure (CNI) monitoring, maritime operations, and remote industrial telemetry where failure cannot be an option.

While satellite communications have advantages in global coverage and cyber resilience, it’s important to note that they are not immune to threats, as many industries become increasingly concerned about how their data will reach its destination without being compromised. The right mitigation strategies need to be in place, including encryption and redundancy, and when combined with cybersecurity awareness and culture will enhance the security capabilities of satellite IoT connectivity. This will be a key market differentiator as we move in 2026.

Advanced tracking solutions, such as Assured Positioning, Navigation, and Timing (APNT) and quantum inertial navigation, will also become increasingly important too, complimenting flexible connectivity solutions when it comes to combatting the evolving threats related to drones and robotic technology. Jamming and spoofing attacks have seen redesigns of security blueprints, with APNT systems being a core security component.

Next-generation satellite technology increasing diversity

Starting in 2026, higher-bandwidth modules, such as Iridium Messaging Transport (IMT), will see an increase in adoption rates enabling larger payloads and more frequent updates for richer telemetry. This was also agreed to by 45% of those we surveyed. Such high-bandwidth modules are often smaller, lighter, and more power-efficient, which strengthens their appeal, and we do expect to see increased migration to these modules over time. Rather than phasing out ‘legacy’ technologies any time soon, higher-bandwidth modules will add a greater diversity for users, with airtime plans able to be further customised and tailored to their needs.

And while established services will continue to play an important role, it is likely that a three-tier structure will begin to emerge over the next 12 months, leading to even more diverse use cases. The tiers will most likely look like this:

1. Next-generation services – for example Iridium Certus 100, Viasat IoT Nano
2. Standards-based NTN services – such as Viasat NB-NTN, and Iridium NTN Direct
3. Current-generation services – including, Iridium Short Burst Data.

For most organisations, the immediate future will require combining services across tiers to meet specific needs. However, it is important that every company approaches the introduction of new technology carefully and with due consideration. A practical approach is to map applications by required message size, update frequency, power budget, and regulatory/security requirements, then select the correct tier that meets them.

Household name constellations will reshape the market

Rapidly emerging competitive constellations from Amazon Kuiper, AST SpaceMobile, and SpaceX’s Starlink will drive down costs, presenting a real challenge to traditional GEO models. These new entrants are networks designed to deliver high-speed broadband at scale, targeting the consumer market – think connected vehicles and home internet. Four in ten (40%) of respondents highlighted new constellations entering the market as a major driving force next year.

While their direct relevance to IoT will likely remain limited for some time, their arrival is creating overcapacity in satellite broadband, increasing financial pressure across the entire sector. This market saturation is likely to intensify towards the end of 2026, as the industry undergoes a major reshaping.

These constellations may have a huge influence on the wider connectivity landscape, but they are not yet deployed optimally for IoT operations that require predictability, reliability, and truly global coverage. It is important that the industry continues to focus on its expertise in providing proven, specialised satellite services for IoT deployments – while keeping a close eye on how the market evolves.

The rising influence of standards-based IoT

Technologies such as NTN NB-IoT allow devices to connect directly to satellites using a single SIM and existing cellular standards. This is resulting in significant reductions in engineering effort and hardware complexity. The end result is that satellite connectivity becomes more accessible and simpler to deploy, agreed by 35% of our peers.

The year ahead will see many regional trials of NTN NB-IoT take place, and the challenges of developing and rolling out this standards-based technology will become clearer. The hype will likely die down next year, making way for deeper, more focused engineering work to address these challenges.

One thing is clear: next year will be an important step in shaping how quickly, and in which areas, standards-based IoT gains traction moving forward.

Data becomes more insightful and valuable thanks to AI

AI is rapidly becoming a key differentiator in the competitive IoT market, and next year will only see this accelerate – particularly as the arms race shifts towards how organisations extract the highest value from IoT data. Simply collecting telemetry is no longer enough; companies must now deliver smarter analytics, predictive capabilities, and autonomous decision-making to remain competitive and provide greater value to their customers. Nearly a quarter of (24%) of satellite IOT professionals said they expect to see AI having short-term influence, thought its importance is expected to grow.

I expect AI to drive forward many evolutions in IoT data insights. Firstly, the quality of data will matter more than ever next year and beyond. Basic, flat reports will no longer suffice. Instead, far richer contextual data and AI-enabled, actionable recommendations will be required.

Secondly, IoT system architecture will become more strategic, with increased investment across edge compute, data pipelines, telemetry frameworks, and orchestration layers.

Thirdly, IoT data will become a competitive battleground. As more organisations adopt AI, those that own higher-quality datasets and operate more sophisticated connectivity models capable of producing rich data will lead the pack.

Overall, the deployment and business case for AI will evolve again next year in line with market demands. But where there is challenge, there is opportunity – and those who embrace it will be best placed to capitalise.

2026 is the year of evolution

The satellite IoT ecosystem should brace for significant change, driven by external forces such as geopolitical tensions, conflicts, new major market entrants, and rapid technological advancement.

The best way for the sector to navigate the road ahead is to plan for resilience rather than pure growth, embrace diversity in connectivity solutions, focus on core strengths, avoid reactive decision-making, and build strong data foundations.

Change is inevitable, and while it brings challenges, the winners in 2026 will be those that treat resilience, migration planning, and data discipline as strategic priorities, not engineering afterthoughts.

About Ground Control 

Ground Control is a UK- and US-based company specialized in reliable, rugged satellite and hybrid IoT communications solutions for remote and mission-critical operations. Founded nearly 30 years ago, the company has built a strong reputation for designing and manufacturing compact, low-power satellite IoT devices and two-way messaging trackers, used across industries where connectivity is essential, no matter how remote the location. 

At the heart of Ground Control’s offering is Cloudloop, a flexible and secure device and subscription management platform that enables seamless provisioning, data routing, and operational visibility across diverse global asset fleets. 

With teams based in the UK and California, Ground Control serves a broad range of sectors, including: 

• Environmental science & monitoring 
• Fisheries & marine operations 
• Utilities & smart grid 
• Renewable energy infrastructure 
• Disaster response & early warning systems 
• Agriculture & precision farming, 
• Defence & humanitarian logistics. 

Ground Control’s devices and platforms are used by governments, NGOs, research institutes, and industrial operators worldwide to enable data-driven decision-making, monitor assets in real time, and ensure business continuity in challenging environments. 

Now part of the CLS Group, Ground Control continues to develop robust, field-proven technology while benefiting from the global reach, environmental mission, and scientific legacy of its new parent company. 

www.groundcontrol.com